Just last year, we were talking with clients about Chevron in the $150–$160 range.
It felt like Chevron had a good run.
It felt constructive.
But it didn’t feel like a major moment.
Today, Chevron Corporation (CVX) is trading around $205—well clear of its ~ $160 200-day moving average.
No one realistically thought we’d be above $200 / share in early 2026.
Now the real question is: how do you turn this into something real—after taxes and in terms of what you actually keep? Past performance is not indicative of future results. This report has been generated through application of the analytical tools and data provided through ycharts.com and is intended solely for conducting investment research. The investment examples set forth in this presentation should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any specific securities. There can be no assurance that such investments will remain in the strategy or have ever been held in a WJA strategy.
Why is Chevron Stock Going Up
We all know, this is an oil story.
Tensions with Iran and disruption risk around the Strait of Hormuz have pushed crude prices sharply higher. With uncertainty in oil supply, energy markets reprice quickly.
Chevron’s stock price reflects that.
This run isn’t due to any underlying business changes.
It’s exposure to oil.
Chevron’s Stock Outlook in 2026 Compared to Recent Years
Chevron’s stock hasn’t been trending higher.
Since mid-2023, the stock has been flat to down.
A few reasons:
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- Arbitration uncertainty with ExxonMobil Corporation over the Hess acquisition
- Rangebound-to-weaker oil prices for much of that period
- Questions around capital allocation and growth visibility
How Oil Prices & the Iran Conflict are Impacting Chevron Stock
So this recent move isn’t just continuation—it’s a reversal driven by an unexpended blockade of around 20% of the world's oil and gas.
Consider this: if the key driver of the stock price is external, the outcome can change quickly. Oil prices moved almost overnight. They can also fall just as fast.
If war in the middle east dies down and oil cools, Chevron likely follows.
If tensions persist, it could move higher.
You’re not just holding Chevron stock. You’re implicitly making a geopolitical bet on the length and magnitude on the war in Iran.
Behavioral Investing: When Should I Sell My Chevron Stock?
When people own stock that has made a significant run short-term, I often see people adjust price targets. Targets are easy to set when they’re abstract. Harder to execute in real-time.
"I'll trim at $180."
Then it hits $180...
"Let's see if it runs."
Now it’s $200.
And the target moves again.
This pattern repeats more often than people realize.
Chevron Employees: CVX Stock Concentration Risk
For many Chevron employees, they receive a significant portion of their annual compensation in Chevron stock.
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- Stock grants
- Stock options (with built-in leverage and a clock)
- Option exercises often trigger ordinary income on the spread
- Selling vested shares typically results in capital gains (often long-term if held long enough)
And this is where timing and taxes intersect.
That means decisions here aren’t just about price: they’re about after-tax outcomes.
A strong move like this can be an opportunity, but only if you’re thinking about what you actually keep.
Diversifying Chevron Stock Exposure With Our Clients
The conversation we’re having with clients is consistent:
This may be a moment to take advantage of strength.
That can look like:
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- Exercising options while they’re meaningfully in the money (with a tax plan in place)
- Selling a portion of vested shares (and tax loss harvesting in the rest of the portfolio to offset the capital gains)
Not all at once.
Not reactively. Systematically and intentionally, using disciplined follow-through.
For many people meeting with us, I’m asking, “If you had cash, would you be buying CVX stock today or something else?”
The Takeaway
If you wouldn’t be buying CVX stock with an extra $200, why are you continuing to hold it?
Chevron being over $200 feels important.
But what matters more is this:
After a long stretch of sideways performance, you’ve been given a window.
Between price, concentration, and taxes, this is one of those moments where a few simple decisions can change outcomes.
If this is a position you’ve been meaning to revisit, it’s worth doing it now with both the market and the tax side in view.
We’re happy to help you think it through.
