Just last year, we were talking with clients about Chevron in the $150–$160 range.
It felt like Chevron had a good run.
It felt constructive.
But it didn’t feel like a major moment.
Today, Chevron Corporation (CVX) is trading around $205—well clear of its ~ $160 200-day moving average.
No one realistically thought we’d be above $200 / share in early 2026.
Now the real question is: how do you turn this into something real—after taxes and in terms of what you actually keep?
We all know, this is an oil story.
Tensions with Iran and disruption risk around the Strait of Hormuz have pushed crude prices sharply higher. With uncertainty in oil supply, energy markets reprice quickly.
Chevron’s stock price reflects that.
This run isn’t due to any underlying business changes.
It’s exposure to oil.
Chevron’s stock hasn’t been trending higher.
Since mid-2023, the stock has been flat to down.
A few reasons:
So this recent move isn’t just continuation—it’s a reversal driven by an unexpended blockade of around 20% of the world's oil and gas.
Consider this: if the key driver of the stock price is external, the outcome can change quickly. Oil prices moved almost overnight. They can also fall just as fast.
If war in the middle east dies down and oil cools, Chevron likely follows.
If tensions persist, it could move higher.
You’re not just holding Chevron stock. You’re implicitly making a geopolitical bet on the length and magnitude on the war in Iran.
When people own stock that has made a significant run short-term, I often see people adjust price targets. Targets are easy to set when they’re abstract. Harder to execute in real-time.
"I'll trim at $180."
Then it hits $180...
"Let's see if it runs."
Now it’s $200.
And the target moves again.
This pattern repeats more often than people realize.
For many Chevron employees, they receive a significant portion of their annual compensation in Chevron stock.
And this is where timing and taxes intersect.
That means decisions here aren’t just about price: they’re about after-tax outcomes.
A strong move like this can be an opportunity, but only if you’re thinking about what you actually keep.
The conversation we’re having with clients is consistent:
This may be a moment to take advantage of strength.
That can look like:
Not all at once.
Not reactively. Systematically and intentionally, using disciplined follow-through.
For many people meeting with us, I’m asking, “If you had cash, would you be buying CVX stock today or something else?”
If you wouldn’t be buying CVX stock with an extra $200, why are you continuing to hold it?
Chevron being over $200 feels important.
But what matters more is this:
After a long stretch of sideways performance, you’ve been given a window.
Between price, concentration, and taxes, this is one of those moments where a few simple decisions can change outcomes.
If this is a position you’ve been meaning to revisit, it’s worth doing it now with both the market and the tax side in view.
We’re happy to help you think it through.