A few weeks ago, we were talking with clients about Shell in the $70s. And then, it actually happened: Shell crossed $90.
It felt strong. It felt like progress. But it didn’t feel like a defining moment.
Now, as I write this, Shell plc (SHEL) is trading around $91.88—well above its 200-day moving average of roughly $74.
And now we’re having a different conversation with clients: what should you do with your Shell stock after a major market run-up like this, and is now the time to start selling Shell stock?
To think clearly about what comes next, it helps to separate this into two related drivers.
Most commentary and headlines only focus on the second point, but the first is where the story really starts.
Before the recent spike in oil, Shell had already been trending higher, and that wasn’t by accident.
Under CEO Wael Sawan, Shell has become much more explicit about its priorities:
At its latest Capital Markets Day, Shell outlined plans to keep annual investment in a tighter range, increase the percentage of cash flow returned to shareholders, grow LNG volumes, and reduce structural costs.
For years, investors questioned how European energy companies would balance energy transition goals with profitability. Shell responded with a clear and focused strategy, and markets have responded.
Shell has not abandoned the energy transition, but it has become more selective about where it invests. Management has emphasized delivering “more value with less emissions,” prioritizing areas where the company believes it has a competitive advantage.
In practice, that has meant leaning more heavily into:
Another piece of the story is simplification.
Shell has continued to sell non-core assets and streamline the business. Most recently, it announced the sale of Jiffy Lube for approximately $1.3 billion.
Moves like this don’t usually drive a stock in the short term.
But over time, they can support a higher valuation by:
The recent move in Shell stock from the upper $70s into the $90s is much more directly tied to oil.
The escalation in the Iran conflict and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has pushed oil prices sharply higher.
When oil moves like that, Shell’s stock price tends to move with it.
That relationship is well understood and it’s the clearest explanation for the most recent leg higher.
The recent run in Shell stock is driven by two different forces at once:
A stronger, more disciplined business
A commodity-driven spike layered on top
This matters because strategic improvements may persist as Shell doubles down on their competitive advantage, but the spikes in energy are less predictable over time. A de-escalation, reopening of shipping routes, or normalization in crude prices could bring energy prices back down. If that happens, Shell could still be a stronger company than it was two years ago. But what does this mean for investors holding Shell stock?
This is where investing gets interesting.
Not long ago, for many investors, the number wasn’t $90.
It was $80.
“If Shell gets to $80, that would be an amazing opportunity to sell.”
That felt like the win. The nice run. The moment to reduce exposure.
And then it happened.
Shell moved through $80.
And instead of selling, the conversation changed:
"Let's see if it gets to $90."
"Oil is strong, this might have more room."
"This isn't the right time anymore."
The target moved.
This is a very human pattern. The level that once felt like the finish line quickly becomes the new baseline and a new target appears just beyond it.
The risk is not that the stock goes higher.
It might.
The risk is that the plan quietly fades into the background and disappears.
Some investors were waiting for $70. Then $80. Now $90. Next, it may be $100.
And at each step, the same logic applies:
“Just a little bit more.”
If you had a plan built on strategy and told yourself:
“When Shell gets to $80, I’m going to diversify a portion of my holdings”
Then this is the moment to revisit that plan honestly.
How we like to look at it from an objective approach:
“If you had cash, would you be buying Shell stock today or something else?”
That answer tends to clarify things quickly.
If the answer is:
"Something else" why don't you sell and diversify
"My situation has changed" that's worth evaluating
"I just feel like holding on a bit longer" that's where behavior tends to take over
We’re having a lot of conversations right now with Shell executives and professionals who have benefited from this recent run-up.
In many cases, our recommendation is consistent:
Use the strength to diversify.
Not because Shell is a bad company.
Not because the stock can’t go higher.
But because moves like this, especially when influenced by geopolitics—don’t tend to last forever. When the war in the middle east ends, it could likely do so quickly, with the opportunity to sell at today’s prices in the rear-view mirror.
For many Shell employees, this timing is particularly relevant.
A lot of clients have just received new shares in Q1 through:
At the same time, many still have granted but unvested shares that will continue to vest over the next several years. This means even if you sold everything that’s fully vested today, you would still remain meaningfully exposed to Shell through future vesting and performance-based compensation. And that’s before you factor in your exposure from your base salary, bonus compensation, and pension all being tied up in the same company!
You’re not walking away from all the upside.
You’re simply reducing concentration risk today.
We’ve written more about how Shell compensation works and how to think about diversification and taxes around Performance Shares and the GESPP:
https://insights.wjohnsonassociates.com/blog/shell-stock-compensation-shell-shares